Files
Seth Hobson 38cb914673 feat(plugin-eval): implement Layer 3 Monte Carlo simulation with statistical analysis
Adds MonteCarloAnalyzer with SimResult/MonteCarloConfig dataclasses, run_simulation
async helper, and _compute_statistics using Wilson score CI, bootstrap CI,
Clopper-Pearson CI, and coefficient of variation. Wires MC layer into evaluate_skill
for Depth.DEEP and Depth.THOROUGH runs (50 and 100 runs respectively).
2026-03-25 17:52:15 -04:00

46 lines
1.9 KiB
Python

from pathlib import Path
from unittest.mock import AsyncMock, patch
import pytest
from plugin_eval.layers.monte_carlo import MonteCarloAnalyzer, MonteCarloConfig, SimResult
class TestSimResult:
def test_sim_result(self):
sr = SimResult(activated=True, quality_score=0.8, tokens=2500, duration_ms=1200)
assert sr.activated is True
assert sr.errored is False
class TestMonteCarloAnalyzer:
@pytest.mark.asyncio
@patch("plugin_eval.layers.monte_carlo.run_simulation")
async def test_run_with_mocked_sims(self, mock_sim, sample_skill_dir: Path):
mock_sim.return_value = SimResult(
activated=True, quality_score=0.82, tokens=2800, duration_ms=1500
)
config = MonteCarloConfig(n_runs=10, concurrency=2)
analyzer = MonteCarloAnalyzer(config)
result = await analyzer.analyze_skill(sample_skill_dir)
assert result.layer == "monte_carlo"
assert result.score > 0
assert "triggering" in result.sub_scores
assert "output_consistency" in result.sub_scores
assert "failure_rate" in result.sub_scores
def test_statistical_analysis(self):
"""Test the statistical analysis on pre-computed sim results."""
analyzer = MonteCarloAnalyzer(MonteCarloConfig(n_runs=50))
results = [
SimResult(activated=True, quality_score=0.8 + i * 0.002, tokens=2500, duration_ms=1200)
for i in range(48)
] + [
SimResult(activated=False, quality_score=0.0, tokens=500, duration_ms=200, errored=True),
SimResult(activated=True, quality_score=0.75, tokens=8000, duration_ms=5000),
]
stats = analyzer._compute_statistics(results)
assert stats["triggering"]["activation_rate"] == pytest.approx(0.98)
assert stats["failure_rate"]["p_fail"] == pytest.approx(0.02)
assert stats["output_consistency"]["cv"] < 0.15